Holding onto assets in anticipation of a price increase is a foolish endeavor; if you fail to sell at the right moment, you are finished. This article originates from an article written by members of 0xFinish and 0xTrack, and is organized, translated, and authored by Block Beats.
(Previous context: Ben Chow, the founder of Solana’s largest DeFi project, has been exposed for “colluding with Kelsier Venture,” utilizing M3M3, $LIBRA, $MELANIA, and others to harvest over $200 million.)
(Background Supplement: Watch out! The Argentine president retweeted a $LIBRA purchase tutorial, which soared by 100% before he distanced himself: “This is not a promotion,” and the price fell back to its original point.)
The author reflects on the birth of PumpFun, the differences between the Bitcoin halving events, the scams of 2021 and today, how to adapt to new market cycles, and reminds investors to be aware of limited liquidity in the current market environment, to have a clear selling strategy, and to closely follow narratives amid market rotations to avoid excessive FOMO. Additionally, it is important to always keep some profits in stablecoins and continue accumulating long-term quality assets like BTC.
Below is the original content (edited for readability):
This cycle is extremely difficult, worse than any previous cycle. Many people even refer to it as a “criminal cycle,” due to the growing number of “rug pulls” and shady projects that raise concerns.
The purpose of this article is to reflect on the past and attempt to predict what challenges lie ahead for those of us who merely wish to succeed.
The Birth of PumpFun
On January 19, 2024, PumpFun was born, forever changing the landscape of meme coins. Everyone was given the opportunity to launch tokens, regardless of age, profession, or nationality.
At that time, the excitement was relatively low, but PumpFun began to gain momentum in March 2024, with early projects such as $MICHI and $FWOG. Anyone could launch a meme coin in a matter of seconds, which transformed the entire market.
As more tokens emerged, PumpFun became a platform for fair issuance, free from insider exploitation. However, the withdrawal fees were substantial.
Since its launch, PumpFun has earned over 2.86 million $SOL, roughly equivalent to $577 million. It may be one of the most successful startup projects in history.
This liquidity was permanently extracted and pocketed by PumpFun’s developers. I believe this is a significant reason that sets this cycle apart. We will explore this further later.
Bitcoin Halving
Next is a crucial moment in the current cycle. On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward was halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. When the first ETF was approved on January 10, 2024, many believed it might be a “sell the news” event; however, we actually witnessed a new all-time high (ATH).
The combination of ETF + halving is the strongest bullish scenario for BTC, as many have been waiting for institutional liquidity to start flowing into the market. And that is exactly what happened. Fidelity, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy have been buying daily, continuously injecting liquidity into the market.
This gave people hope. They thought this bull market would resemble past cycles, but this time, everything was different.
The market always works against the majority; in other words, if retail investors are bullish, the market is likely to decline, and vice versa. Perhaps this is what is happening here, and we are about to reveal this.
Your Expectations Are the Problem
Looking back at the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the situations were very similar. Making money was not difficult, and no special knowledge was required. There were 10-20 mainstream coins that everyone was accumulating.
First, BTC would rise, followed by ETH, which typically offered higher returns as a beta asset of the cycle. Then we would shift from ETH to other mainstream coins and finally to smaller altcoins.
This is why many decided to skip the BTC stage in 2024 and invest directly in ETH or other altcoins; the logic is simple. If ETH can rise 5 times and larger altcoins can increase 10 times, why wait for a 2-3 times return on BTC?
This logic is very straightforward; however, the “masses” did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and meme coins has increased a hundredfold compared to before, and everyone eagerly bought familiar tokens like $DOT, $ATOM, and $ADA, waiting for the promised 10 times return.
As a result, when liquidity began to flow into altcoins, the sheer number of new projects left older projects behind.
Scams in 2021 vs. Now
I just saw @Overdose_AI present a valid point and decided to add it here. Back in 2021, scam artists behind “rug pulls” were quite creative; as long as they were not overly greedy, almost everyone could jump ship.
Terra $LUNA was manipulated by Do Kwon.
FTX was operated by Sam Fried.
3AC invested for a long time before the collapse.
Alameda pushed different narratives and manipulated the market.
Scams at that time were relatively difficult and required a certain level of intelligence. Now, people merely use celebrities, influencers, and even rulers of large nations to promote their worthless projects.
People have become accustomed to gambling, FOMOing into $TRUMP and $MELANIA, and deciding to recoup losses through $CAR or $LIBRA, ultimately losing all their money.
I know 10 to 15 excellent traders who once invested in $LIBRA through DCA, seizing opportunities while waiting for a pullback, while insiders profited over $100 million at their expense.
It’s Time to Adapt
It’s time to understand that cycles will never be exactly the same; altcoins are not just a beta version of BTC or ETH; they represent a completely different submarket that brings greater risks and more opportunities.
You cannot continue to go long on $DOT or $ATOM simply because BTC has hit a new high, as this was effective in 2021.
Make no mistake, I still have faith in BTC and believe it will remain one of the best compounding assets over the next 10 to 20 years, but returns will resemble those of stocks, no longer achieving easy annual growth of 200%.
Conclusions to Remember in This Cycle
1. Holding onto assets in anticipation of a price increase is a foolish endeavor; if you fail to sell at the right moment, you are finished. @MustStopMurad has been telling you to hold assets, while almost all of his meme coins have fallen 80%-90% since their ATH.
2. You need a clear selling strategy. I know this may sound harsh, but that’s the nature of the market; you must determine when to exit before making a trade.
3. Follow the rotating narratives. Recently, we have experienced a crazy market rotation from meme coins to AI agents, and then to $TRUMP. If at any point you fail to keep up, it is almost guaranteed that most of your gains will be wiped out. Always follow the market narrative and remember that liquidity is limited.
4. “Timing” is always better than “anticipating.” Don’t overthink; find the right moment to enter, but also don’t become overly anxious while waiting.
5. Always transfer a portion of your profits into stablecoins. Regardless of how much you believe in a particular protocol, continuing to accumulate BTC is still a better opportunity than most stocks or real estate.
To be honest, I don’t know if we will go down or up next; I currently have positions on both sides. If the market drops, I will continue to buy more BTC and $ETH.
If the market rises, I have enough altcoins to avoid FOMO, and I know I can profit through trading and help my followers.
I hope this cycle is not over yet; the current consolidation of BTC will determine our direction over the next 2-3 months.
