US President Trump has initiated a tariff war, impacting the global financial market. According to the latest analysis from QCP Capital, market volatility is expected to continue until negotiations with Canada, Mexico, and the implementation of tariff policies on the European Union are finalized. Meanwhile, Matrixport states that whether the 21-week moving average line is broken will be a key indicator for the continuation of the Bitcoin bull market.
US President Trump officially launched a tariff war against Canada, Mexico, and China, causing a global financial market shock. As a result, the cryptocurrency market also experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $91,000 and Ethereum dropping below $2,100. Other altcoins suffered even more severe losses.
QCP Capital predicts that the market impact of the tariff war will continue. In response to the White House’s imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, as well as a 10% import tax on Chinese goods, Canada retaliated with a 25% retaliatory tariff on $10.6 billion worth of US goods. It is expected that Mexico will follow suit.
QCP Capital states that the first round of trade policies by the Trump administration has already caused severe market fluctuations. The US bond yield curve has flattened, with a rise in 2-year bond yields and a decline in 10-year bond yields. This indicates market concerns about short-term inflation. At the same time, the long-term risks of a trade war may drag down global economic growth.
The price difference between gold in New York and London has widened, which not only reflects the unwinding of popular EFP arbitrage trades but also suggests logistical challenges in transferring gold between different vaults. This serves as a reminder that the scope of tariffs remains uncertain.
QCP Capital mentions that the trade war has led to a general decline in global stock markets, a slight retreat in gold prices, and a surge in oil prices. In the cryptocurrency market, which serves as one of the risk indicators, forced liquidation of nearly $2 billion occurred before the US stock market opened. The drop in Ethereum was even more severe than that of Bitcoin.
This decoupling phenomenon in the market reinforces the viewpoint that today’s hedge market is mainly the result of portfolio rebalancing across different assets, rather than a single asset event. Volatility is expected to persist as Trump will negotiate with Canada and Mexico tonight and claim that tariffs on the European Union will “definitely happen.”
Meanwhile, Matrixport’s analysis suggests that although the market had already widely anticipated Trump’s tariff policy, it still came as a surprise. This may be due to the fact that last week, the market’s focus was primarily on DeepSeek rather than Trump’s policy.
However, Matrixport believes that more importantly, retail investors’ participation in this market correction is insufficient. With tariff uncertainty expected to persist in the coming days, this uncertainty is affecting the current market adjustment.
Matrixport states that a simple and effective method to determine whether Bitcoin is still in a bull market is to observe the 21-week moving average line. This moving average line has always been regarded as an important indicator for observing the overall market trend. As long as Bitcoin remains above this level, the bull market will continue. However, if it falls below this level, traders should adopt risk management strategies.
Today: Trump’s tariffs, retail investors’ hesitation, and Bitcoin bull market signals.