Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have recently dropped below 570,000 coins, reaching the lowest level since January of this year. Notably, two months after Binance’s Bitcoin reserves fell to a similar level in January, Bitcoin surged by 90%. Is history about to repeat itself?
(Background: Brother Ma transferred 12% of Cream to Binance, is a surge supported by Hyperliquid on the horizon?)
(Additional context: There are rumors that Binance is “stockpiling Kaspa” in preparation for launching spot trading; how credible is this information?)
According to CryptoQuant data, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have recently fallen below 570,000 coins, marking the lowest level since January of this year. When exchange reserves decrease, it typically indicates that investors are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets, reflecting confidence in its long-term price trajectory.
It is noteworthy that Binance’s Bitcoin reserves also dropped to similar levels in January, and two months later, on March 13, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed by 90% to $73,679, setting a new record at that time. If Bitcoin follows the same pattern again, based on current prices, it could reach $187,500 within a few months. CryptoQuant analysts point out that when withdrawal peaks occur, it is often a sign that the market is accumulating positive momentum.
Moreover, the potential arrival of an altcoin season has drawn market attention. Based on past bullish experiences, when Bitcoin’s market share remains at a high of 60%, an altcoin season is likely to follow shortly thereafter. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s current market share stands at 58.4%, continuing to hover slightly below the critical 60% threshold. Some analysts believe that a level below 60% may suggest that the market is rotating toward other crypto assets.
When will Bitcoin return to $100,000?
Since Bitcoin first broke the psychological barrier of $100,000 on the 5th, it has remained below that level since the 19th, prompting market concerns about when Bitcoin will reclaim this significant milestone. Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, believes that Bitcoin may exceed $105,000 after liquidity rebounds following the Christmas holiday.
Ryan Lee analyzes that Bitcoin’s recent downward trend is a typical phenomenon of insufficient liquidity during holiday periods: “After Christmas, market activity usually becomes active again, and funds are expected to be actively allocated to areas that may benefit from Trump’s imminent assumption of office… This week’s anticipated trading range for Bitcoin is between $94,000 and $105,000.”
Previously, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that based on past bull market cycles, the average duration from the first historical peak to the last in each bull market is 318 days. Starting from Bitcoin’s first historical high on March 5 of this year, Bitcoin could reach a new high in this bull market by January 17 of next year. Vetle Lunde mentioned that in this cycle, based on previous bull market peaks, Bitcoin’s peak level may fall around $146,000, whereas if past market cap references are taken into account, Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $212,500 in this cycle.
