Bitcoin broke through the $73,000 mark this morning, reaching a high of $73,650 at 3 a.m., less than $150 away from its all-time high. However, selling pressure emerged afterward, with the price dropping to $72,314 before the deadline, showing a 1.7% increase in the past 24 hours.
With the U.S. presidential election approaching, analysts have different views on the future trend of Bitcoin. Below are the opinions of various traders and analysts:
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs from BlackRock reached $599.8 million on the 29th, indicating the confirmation of FOMO sentiment. The daily trading volume of IBIT reached $3.35 billion, the highest level in over six months.
According to CoinGlass data, the total inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States on the 29th was $827 million. Eric Balchunas believes that if this is a FOMO frenzy, it will be reflected in ETF fund flows in the next few nights. If not, it may just be high-frequency arbitrage trading or similar activities.
Galaxy Digital’s research director Alex Thorn expressed a similar view, stating that the 29th was the third-highest day of Bitcoin ETF trading volume since April 1, 2024, with a total daily trading volume of $46.4 billion, of which IBIT accounted for about 38%, ranking first, followed by Grayscale GBTC with $390.32 million. It is important to note that an increase in trading volume indicates strong ETF liquidity but does not reflect new capital inflows.
Top trader Eugene released a summary of October trades, indicating a theme of buying on dips. He experienced losses due to early betting on the Iran/Israel war FUD, but later stabilized his trading during Bitcoin’s rise from $60,000 to $69,000. He also mentioned trading in perpetual contracts on ENA and accumulating a good spot position for the long term.
Matrixport stated that Bitcoin demand surged due to the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory and rising ETF buying volume.
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan suggested that the demand for traditional store-of-value assets is rising sharply, leading more investors to gravitate towards value assets. Bitcoin and gold are both value storage means against inflation. The investment in value storage assets continues to grow, and with fiat currency continuing to depreciate, Bitcoin’s price could quickly rise to six figures, reaching $200,000 without the need for a collapse in the U.S. dollar.
K33 Research’s report analyzed that Bitcoin has not shown signs of the same enthusiasm as in March, indicating further room for price increases. Although Bitcoin trading volume grew by over 8% in the past week, the daily trading volume remains low, averaging $26 billion, almost half of the level in the first quarter of this year.
The relatively calm market activity suggests a healthy and gradual accumulation rather than FOMO buying. In addition, the ETH/BTC exchange rate reached a multi-year low, reflecting a shift in focus in the cryptocurrency space towards Bitcoin. The lack of typical excitement in Bitcoin’s rebound near the new high indicates that Bitcoin is a mature asset, poised for continued growth in favorable market conditions and upcoming elections.
Compared to the speculative trading surge in March and April, the current futures contract market conditions show a more balanced environment with lower leverage rates. The annualized funding rate for Bitcoin currently averages 10.83%, much lower than the high rate of 32.17% in the first quarter, indicating a more calm and cautious attitude from investors. The stability is also reflected in CME futures contracts.
The report concludes that the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds indicates strong institutional investor interest, supporting the expectation of continued growth, especially as retail investors show less urgency than expected during the current rebound.