Glassnode’s latest weekly report suggests that the long-term oscillation of Bitcoin prices between $60,000 and $70,000 is likely to be broken. Multiple indicators show that the market’s volatility has compressed to rare levels, indicating an upcoming large-scale price fluctuation.
Bitcoin hit a low of $57,800 this morning, marking the lowest point in two months and a retreat of nearly 22% from the mid-March high of $73,738. Many bullish investors have been thrown into confusion by this round of sell-offs, but according to the latest weekly report released earlier by the on-chain data analysis company Glassnode, it indicates that Bitcoin’s larger fluctuations may not be over.
Glassnode wrote in the report that volatility over multiple timeframes has declined, and Bitcoin’s realized volatility (calculated every 30 days) has shown negative values in the one-week, two-week, one-month, three-month, six-month, and one-year timeframes. Therefore, as their data is unlikely to be any lower, it suggests that the volatility is about to increase.
Glassnode also assessed market volatility by evaluating the percentage change between the highest and lowest prices in the past 60 days. According to this indicator, Bitcoin’s market volatility has compressed to rare levels. Glassnode warned that this situation typically occurs after a long period of consolidation and before a significant market fluctuation.
Furthermore, Glassnode reinforced its volatility assessment with the sell-side risk ratio, which evaluates the sum of investors’ realized profits and losses in absolute terms relative to realized market value. Based on this indicator, Glassnode states that the sell-side risk ratio for short-term holders has dropped to a historic low, indicating the likelihood of an increase in volatility in the near future.
Despite Bitcoin hitting a two-month low and the fear and greed index shifting from neutral to fear at 44, Glassnode states that Bitcoin’s MVRV indicator shows that a significant portion of Bitcoin investors are still profitable. The MVRV is currently at 2.04, indicating that investors on average hold more than double the profit.
Additionally, Glassnode’s report implies that the bull market is not yet over, as it points out that the unrealized gains and losses ratio per Bitcoin also indicates a bullish phase. Glassnode suggests that the bull market is still ongoing.