According to historical data, Bitcoin usually performs poorly in June, but July brings a rebound, bringing the temperature of the cryptocurrency market back up. Below is a summary of the sectors worth paying attention to in July. This article is sourced from an article by “雨中狂睡,” compiled, translated, and written by Foresight News.
Table of Contents:
1/ Ethereum – S Grade
2/ Layer1 (A Grade), Layer2 (B Grade), Layer3 (C Grade)
– Solana – A Grade
– Avalanche – B Grade
– Fantom – B Grade
3/ RWA – A Grade
4/ AI – A Grade
5/ Social – Currently rated C, still a false proposition
6/ Gaming – Currently rated C, false proposition x2
In July, the most important events are the Ethereum spot ETF and Mt. Gox. The market always reacts before the events. As the events approach, their impact on the market diminishes. This is why people often say “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News.”
If history rhymes, ETH may have a similar performance to BTC after the ETF approval, but we should also consider the overall macro environment and the impact of the US election on the market.
However, I agree with Zhusu’s view on the “Sell the News” aspect. The market’s reflexivity, bro.
Regarding ETH Beta, I previously selected four tokens: $ENS, $ETHFI, $TURBO, $MOG. The price of $TURBO and $MOG is highly volatile, suitable for short-term trading, while $ENS has performed the best.
Regarding $TURBO, I have updated my understanding: it is not closely related to ETH, so it will be removed from the list. The current list is: $ENS, $LDO, $PEPE, $MOG, $MKR ($MKR still has the narrative of split and rebranding, and its protocol revenue/fundamentals are also great).
Interested friends can refer back to my previous tweet.
I have previously discussed my views on Solana, which currently only has the narrative of being a meme coin casino. As for the catalyst of the ETF application, Blink, and the previous narratives of Depin and Solana Mobile, they still need time to be verified.
In summary, Solana’s goal is mass adoption, but it still has a long way to go. The current demand for Solana in the market is only for meme coin speculation.
Avalanche may launch some new activities, similar to the previous Avalanche Rush. “Proof of $AVAX Boost” will be converted to $S, as I have previously discussed in my tweet. I don’t have much to share about Layer2, mainly focusing on the wealth effect of Basechain and farming opportunities on Arbitrum. However, there aren’t many opportunities to get involved in Layer2 tokens such as $ARB and $OP. Meanwhile, if the ZK narrative explodes, you know which target to choose 🙂
$ZK is the best meme for ZK.
Regarding the Layer3 token $XAI, I will briefly discuss my perspective. Currently, the TPS on the Xai chain has reached 104, ranking first among Ethereum Layer2 & Layer3. I have explained this phenomenon in my previous tweet. In addition, on July 9th, $XAI will unlock approximately 200 million tokens (accounting for 71% of the current circulation), which is a very large unlocking event.
Speculating conspiratorially, could these two events be related? Will Xai use data manipulation to make price growth more reasonable? Everything is unknown. But I have included $XAI in my watchlist, and once there is an unusual price change, I will intervene immediately.
I actually have a positive view on $DEGEN, but its price performance has been poor. So, I won’t elaborate on it here.
In general, the price of Layer3 tokens mainly depends on catalysts and narratives, with not many actual users (referring to $DEGEN, $DMT, and $WINR), short-term performance outweighs long-term.
$ONDO is the best target and closely related to BlackRock’s stuff. Ondo and Ethereum are the main battlefield for BlackRock’s tokenization.
There isn’t much to discuss about $FET, $OCEAN, $AGIX. The merger is about to conclude, and the unlocking of $WLD has already begun. If the rise of the sector depends on the release of external products/technologies, it is also short-term speculation. In the 30-day narrative strength comparison, AI tokens have the weakest price performance.
Data source: Dune
Previously, I thought Coinbase Smart Wallet would bring about a wave of speculation on Basechain, but ultimately, in this market sentiment, the overall performance of the Basechain ecosystem is not impressive, with only $BRETT standing out. I failed in choosing the tokens in this wave.
The reflection is that the market liquidity and sentiment are not enough to sustain a big explosion in the Basechain ecosystem. Perhaps only one or two tokens will have impressive performances. It’s not good to enter too early, so we can only monitor the chain’s upward trend and enter on the right side.
Pixels Online is still performing strongly, but its price performance is poor.
The Beacon is not performing well, although related activities have driven the return of old players and the addition of new players, sustainability is not good.
Mavia has launched Phase 2, which can be referred to in this tweet, but the market is not buying it.
From the comparison of narrative token strength in the past 90 days, we can clearly see that gaming narratives did not perform well in the previous quarter (lowest IQ: worst performance). I expect a reversal, but I won’t intervene at the moment.
Specific events in July can be seen in this chart.
Regarding macro predictions, I recommend these two articles:
1. Personal analysis by Arthur Hayes
2. Related report: AMA Highlights – How top institutions and analysts envision the second half of 2024, flipping the bull market card
Rich Dad’s warning: Bitcoin ETF is a fake, buying real BTC is the way to go.