In the context of a sluggish market, data shows that Bitcoin miner income is approaching a historical low, and Ethereum Gas fees have fallen below 3 gwei over the weekend, reaching the lowest level since 2020.
The cryptocurrency market has been consistently weak, leading to a decrease in the activity of the ecosystem. According to data from “THE BLOCK,” Bitcoin miner income per TH/s (7-day moving average) has hit a historical low in the past two months since the Bitcoin halving in mid-April. The upward trend that briefly appeared in June has been broken, continuing to decline.
Based on data from Glassnode, the BTC balance in miners’ wallets has continuously decreased by 30,000 BTC since October 2023, currently totaling around 1.8 million BTC. This decrease in balance can be attributed to increased operational costs for mining companies after the Bitcoin halving. They may need to sell Bitcoin to obtain operational funds or purchase new equipment to improve their mining capabilities. Additionally, smaller mining companies may have difficulty sustaining their operations and can only sell Bitcoin to realize profits and close their mining businesses.
Furthermore, Coinglass data indicates that the 30-day average volatility of Bitcoin has decreased to 1.25%, reaching the lowest level in 2024.
On the other hand, Ethereum Gas fees have fallen below 3 gwei over the weekend, reaching the lowest level since 2020. In addition to the decrease in ecosystem activity, the Dencun upgrade in mid-March brought “blob” to Ethereum and reduced the cost of transactions on the second-layer network, leading to a steady decline in the median price of Gas fees.
The lower Gas fees have also resulted in Ethereum’s burn rate dropping to the lowest point in the past 12 months. According to data from Ultrasound.money, due to the lower burn rate, Ethereum currently experiences slight inflation, with an average supply growth rate of 0.56% per year over the past seven days. However, it is still deflationary when observed over a longer period of time, but further observation is needed.
Regarding the market turnaround, digital asset trading company QCP Capital shared its views over the weekend. They observed that a large number of call options expiring within one month were being sold, while call options expiring from September to December were being heavily bought. This indicates that the market expects little price volatility in the short term but has the potential for significant increases before the end of the year. In other words, the market is expected to consolidate during the summer, and the market is expected to explode during the US presidential election.
Furthermore, with the expected launch of an ETH spot ETF, the implied volatility of ETH is 18% higher than that of BTC, indicating stronger bullish sentiment towards ETH.
According to data from options trading platform Deribit, the Bitcoin call option expiring on September 27 with a strike price of $90,000 and the Bitcoin call option expiring on December 27 with a strike price of $75,000 are the top two traded Bitcoin call options, indicating high market expectations for Bitcoin to reach new highs in the fourth quarter of this year.
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