Trader Bob Loukas is currently focusing on potential buying opportunities for BTC below $50,000. He suggests that those who have insufficient positions consider adding to them during this period of volatility. This article is sourced from an article by Crypto, Distilled, compiled, translated, and written by Deep Tide.
(Background:
Perspective: Bitcoin has entered a “post-halving consolidation period,” and a low point is expected within six months.
)
Table of Contents:
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
Why hasn’t the market rallied?
When will the volatility end?
When might the market peak?
Possible trends
Convergence of trends
Bob’s buying strategy
Macro top in 2025
When will the consolidation end? Despite widespread pessimism and anger, the price of BTC has only dropped 15% from its high. Well-known trader Bob Loukas brings hope:
Here are his main points.
We reached the all-time high of the previous cycle in the 16th month, while the previous cycle took over two years. We are currently in the third month of consolidation.
Historically, BTC pauses after reaching all-time highs and then reaches the ultimate cycle peak. Longer consolidation periods mean the next rally will be healthier and stronger.
We have already had 14 weeks of consolidation since the ETF news, with a 12% drop from the high. This volatility is expected after the almost doubling of prices in January 2024 from recent lows. The 7-week cycle low in January was $38,000 (price doubled).
Bob points out several key factors:
Whales from the previous cycle sold off near $60,000
Concerns about a potential monthly doubling top
Outflows from GBTC (selling pressure)
Transition from on-chain assets to ETF assets
ETF anticipation already factored into the price
The rally in Q4 2023 driven by ETF speculation
Be patient. It has already tripled since September 2023 and needs a pullback. Similar to the cycle low after doubling in Q1 2023, a broad base is formed before the rally in Q4. The consolidation may continue until July or August, completing the bottom formation.
According to the 4-year cycle, the peak may still be far away. Previous cycles have taken around 33-35 months from low to high. Following this pattern, October 2025 is a possibility (about 16-17 months away). The significant gap between the 10-month moving average and the price suggests a pullback may be needed.
We may soon see the next regional bottom, possibly at the end of the month. Bullish signs include higher lows, well above the low in January 2024, indicating market strength.
After this regional bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and reclaim the high.
The second possibility is a continuation of the price consolidation. This phase may last until September, forming a regional bottom but not breaking the all-time high.
The third possibility is another 30% drop, typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but with the addition of ETFs, which is a significant difference. Some believe it is not possible to reach around $55,000 with ETFs, but Bob strongly disagrees.
All three scenarios converge around October, November, and December 2024, with the goal of breaking the all-time high and further rising. During this time, Bitcoin’s trend may significantly impact altcoin investment returns.
Bob’s last buy was near the cycle low around $17,000. Now, he is looking at potential buying opportunities for BTC below $50,000. He suggests that those with insufficient positions consider adding to them during this period of volatility.
Bob expects the second phase of the cycle to be healthier. He believes the market peak will occur in the second half of the current cycle. However, the timing of the peak may vary and could be in the second quarter of 2024 (the 30th month) or earlier, rather than the fourth quarter of 2025.
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