On June 4 (Tuesday), Space will host a theme event titled “Outlook for the Second Half of 2024: How Do Top Institutions and Analysts View the Current Bull Market Phase?” Dynamically, the essence will be condensed and presented to readers.
(Previous context:
Envious of the soaring NVIDIA stock? Focus on potential encrypted AI token projects
)
(Background:
Year-on-year increase of 2000%, listed on Binance, revealing the mining “gold production line” behind Kaspa
)
Table of Contents
Guests
Analysis of First-tier Market Hotspots and Various Tracks
Current Stage of Overall Economy, Cryptocurrency Market
Focus on Tracks and Analysis in the Second Half of the Bull Market
On June 4 (Tuesday) at 20:00 (UTC+8), Space will hold a Space event with the theme “Outlook for the Second Half of 2024: How Do Top Institutions and Analysts View the Current Bull Market Phase?” Five heavyweight guests have been specially invited to share trends and tracks worth paying attention to in the second half of 2024 with readers and listeners, as well as the atmosphere of the first-tier market in the current stage. Dynamically, the essence will be condensed as follows!
Andrea
– Oak Grove Ventures Investment Partner
Lao Bai
– ABCDE Investment Partner
Phyrex
– Data Porter
Zhusu
– OX.FUN advisor
Mable Jiang
– Find Satoshi Ventures
Analysis of First-tier Market Hotspots and Various Tracks
Due to the positive news of the crypto narrative in the first half of the year, along with a large number of first-tier market projects related to the Bitcoin ecosystem invested last year, it seems to have cooled down a bit now.
Recently, some KOLs or industry insiders have expressed that the first-tier market may have entered a cooling-off period, with some projects being overvalued and the first-tier market unable to FOMO.
Mable:
Binance’s announcement on May 20 marked a turning point in the market.
The secondary market’s digestion capacity is slightly weaker
Many overvalued VC Rounds, the current cycle is more suitable for Founders Rounds
Founders tend to reduce VC investments, reasons:
Most funds are only funds and do not bring additional value
.
Lao Bai
Most familiar funds are currently taking a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer moves in the first-tier market.
There is currently less innovation from zero to one
, and the low-hanging fruit has been picked in the last DeFi Summer and NFT era.
Apart from the Modular Blockchain track
, there are no tracks in the first-tier market causing FOMO.
Andrea:
Funds are divided into self-owned funds and external LP funds
Funds with external LP funds are more actively investing, eager to deploy funds
Funds with self-owned funds are relatively conservative, may extend unlock times due to poor market conditions, investment styles are changing, now
more focused on whether projects have user use, rather than just looking at infrastructure, funds pay more attention to applications and user data.
Zhusu:
There is weak demand for Infrastructure type coins.
First-tier market investors are turning to the secondary market due to long wait times and the possibility of not receiving coins.
Buying coins in the secondary market has become more attractive, retail investors have more opportunities to buy coins directly,
The new market state is more fair.
Lao Bai:
New projects have raised valuations to hundreds of millions in Series A, with European and American VCs taking over at high valuations.
The trading price of OTC trades by retail investors is similar to the exchange’s opening price, making the market more efficient
In the last bull market cycle, new coins peaked at the opening, with limited space, such as EtherFi opening at 7 billion FDV.
A few new coins like Celestia and old coins like RNDR outperformed BTC.
If valuations do not decrease, meme mainstream may appear,
The market may self-correct in the event of a sharp decline and washout.
Phyrex:
Whether the Fed will cut interest rates is the main point of contention in the current market.
The possibility and timing of interest rate cuts directly affect the cryptocurrency market.
The market outlook is expected to be good during the U.S. election cycle
, investors can adjust their investment strategies by monitoring relevant data.
Lao Bai: It is difficult to find undervalued projects
Warmhole had an off-market price of $1.6 before issuance, FDV of 16 billion USD, dropped continuously after listing, Arbitrum coin price remained the same but market cap rose by 70%, annualized inflation of 60-70%, StarkWare had an FDV of 20 billion at issuance, but only 8-20 on-chain daily active users.
Individual holdings do not represent low valuations, Solana, AR (due to AO launch expectations), CKB Bitcoin expansion plan RGB+, prefer UTXO method of Bitcoin expansion over EVM.
NEAR (not low mark