Industry forecasts suggest that it may take weeks or even months before the SEC officially approves the Ethereum spot ETF’s S-1 filing and allows it to be listed. Several experts predict that the SEC’s delay will drive up the price of ETH, with one analyst forecasting that billions of dollars will enter the market ahead of the ETF’s listing.
Summary:
SEC approves eight Ethereum spot ETFs! But there is still a key document missing for the listing, will ETH fall instead of rising?
Background:
Attention to ETH investment: The inflow of Ethereum into exchanges reaches a two-month high, and options open interest hits a new high of $10 billion… Beware of high volatility.
Table of Contents:
Will the SEC’s delay in listing the Ethereum spot ETF help drive up ETH?
Analyst: Billions of dollars will enter the market ahead of the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF
Bloomberg analyst: Demand for the Ethereum spot ETF will be 25% of the Bitcoin spot ETF
Yesterday (24th) morning, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the 19b-4 filings (exchange rule changes) submitted by eight Ethereum spot ETF issuers, but the official listing is still pending the approval of the required S-1 registration statement.
How long until the listing? ETFStore President Nate Geraci stated on Monday that the SEC may approve the 19b-4 but slow down the execution of the S-1. It may still take “weeks to months” before we see the approval of the S-1 and the official listing of the Ethereum spot ETF.
Yesterday, several experts optimistically predicted that we might see the first listing of Ethereum spot ETFs in June. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas firmly predicted that there will definitely be results in June, while Fish, founder of F2Pool, one of the five largest Bitcoin mining pools and founder of Cobo, a digital asset custody solution provider, predicts that the Ethereum spot ETF may be listed in “mid-June.”
However, there are also institutions that believe the listing will be after June. Galaxy Digital predicts it will be in July or August, while JPMorgan is betting on November.
Further reading:
Fish of Cobo: Ethereum spot ETF may start trading in mid-June, institutions will enter in early 2025.
Will the SEC’s delay in listing the Ethereum spot ETF help drive up ETH?
Previously, some analytical institutions believed that compared to the rapid approval of the 19b-4 and S-1 filings for Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier this year, and the listing being opened the day after, the delay in approving the S-1 filing for the Ethereum spot ETF could cause significant price adjustments for ETH due to this uncertainty.
But many traders hold an optimistic view and believe that this could create upward momentum for the Ethereum market before the potential influx of funds brought by the spot ETF.
According to The Block, Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of crypto hedge fund Split Capital, explained:
Analyst: Billions of dollars will enter the market ahead of the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF
This is in line with the views of eToro analyst Simon Peters, who stated:
He added that after the launch of the spot ETF earlier this year, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, which sparked speculation about whether Ethereum could also refresh its all-time high. The current price of ETH is $3,746, which is about 30% lower than the historical high of $4,878 during the 2021 bull market.
Brian Rudick, research analyst at crypto market maker GSR, also agreed:
Bloomberg analyst: Demand for the Ethereum spot ETF will be 25% of the Bitcoin spot ETF
Ilya Paveliev, co-founder of crypto venture capital firm Arete Capital, pointed out that traders were not aware of the SEC’s change in attitude at the last critical moment, and traders have leveraged to capture early momentum this week, leading to a 26% increase in open interest. However, as short-term traders take profits, this situation may reverse, but the introduction of the ETF should increase spot trading volume.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst James Seyffart stated in an interview last night that he predicts that the demand for the Ethereum spot ETF may be 20-25% of the Bitcoin spot ETF, while his colleague Eric Balchunas believes it will be 15-20%.
Geoff Kendrick, Head of FX Research and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted on Tuesday that the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF will bring in 2.39 million to 9.15 million ETH, equivalent to a capital inflow of $15 billion to $45 billion within the first 12 months. He also predicted that if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, Ethereum could reach $8,000.
Further reading:
Strong! Ethereum fluctuates around $3,700, how do institutions and analysts predict the future of ETH?
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