JPMorgan’s latest report indicates that the profit-taking situation of GBTC has basically occurred, suggesting that the downward pressure on Bitcoin may have gradually subsided. However, analysts warn that if GBTC does not reduce its 1.5% fee, it may continue to experience fund outflows and lose market share.
(Background:
US government to sell $114 million worth of Bitcoin, still holding over 210,000 BTC
)
(About GBTC:
$4.5 billion! After converting to a spot ETF, Grayscale has transferred nearly 113,000 Bitcoins
)
After the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States, causing the Bitcoin price to approach $49,000, BTC has fallen more than 20% in just two weeks.
The market generally attributes the main reason to GBTC. Last week, JPMorgan estimated that investor profit realization of GBTC could lead to a capital outflow of $3 billion (with an additional $5-10 billion outflow if management fees are not further reduced). Currently, the cumulative capital outflow of GBTC has reached $4.786 billion as of yesterday.
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, leading the analysis, wrote in the latest report regarding whether GBTC will further bring selling pressure:
BitMEX Research data shows that GBTC had the highest single-day outflow of $640 million on the 22nd, and the outflow amount gradually decreased for three consecutive days, with $394 million being withdrawn on the 25th.
Source: BitMEX Research
Loolonchain monitoring data indicates that Grayscale transferred an additional 9,434 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime on the 25th, reducing a total of 103,134 Bitcoins since the 11th, and currently holding 510,682 Bitcoins, worth about $20.43 billion.
Currently, GBTC has experienced a 16.8% capital outflow. As for the future capital outflow rate of GBTC, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously predicted that it will be higher than 20% but not exceed 35%.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, who shares the same view as JPMorgan analysts, recently wrote, “GBTC trading volume is declining again, which may be a sign of exhaustion in selling.” Bloomberg data shows that GBTC’s trading volume was $762 million on the 24th and 25th, marking a continuous decline for the fourth consecutive day.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts warned that if GBTC’s 1.5% fee is not lowered quickly, the fund may continue to experience fund outflows, and its market share will be lost to competitors. Analysts stated:
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