According to the latest report from JPMorgan, the profit-taking situation of GBTC has basically occurred, indicating that the downward pressure on Bitcoin may have gradually subsided. However, analysts have warned that if GBTC does not reduce its 1.5% fee, it may continue to experience capital outflows and lose market share.
(Previous summary:
Air raid warning! The US government will sell $114 million worth of Bitcoin, still holding over 210,000 BTC.)
(Background information:
$4.5 billion! After the conversion of GBTC to spot ETF, Grayscale has transferred nearly 113,000 bitcoins.)
After the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, causing the price of Bitcoin to approach $49,000, the price of BTC has fallen by more than 20% in just two weeks.
The market generally attributes this to GBTC. Last week, JPMorgan estimated that the understanding of GBTC investors’ profits would lead to a capital outflow of $3 billion (if management fees are not further reduced, there may be an additional outflow of $5-10 billion). Now, the cumulative outflow of GBTC funds has reached $4.786 billion as of yesterday.
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who led the report, wrote about whether GBTC will continue to bring selling pressure in the latest report:
BitMEX Research data shows that after GBTC had the highest outflow of $640 million in a single day on the 22nd, the outflow amount gradually decreased for three consecutive days, with an outflow of $394 million on the 25th.
Source: BitMEX Research
Loolonchain monitoring data shows that Grayscale transferred another 9,434 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime on the 25th, reducing a total of 103,134 bitcoins since the 11th. It still holds 510,682 bitcoins, worth about $20.43 billion.
Currently, GBTC has experienced a 16.8% outflow of funds. As for the future outflow rate of GBTC, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously predicted that it will be higher than 20% but not exceed 35%.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, who shares the same view as JPMorgan analysts, recently stated that “the trading volume of GBTC has once again declined, which may be a sign of exhausted selling.” Bloomberg data shows that GBTC’s trading volume was $762 million on the 24th and 25th, marking a fourth consecutive day of decline.
Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts warn that if GBTC’s 1.5% fee is not reduced promptly, the fund may continue to experience capital outflows, and its market share will be lost to competitors. The analysts stated:
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