The U.S. presidential election began voting and counting on the 5th local time. Currently, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is temporarily leading. However, the results from the crucial seven swing states have yet to be finalized, and it may not be until the evening of the 6th or the daytime of the 7th Taiwan time that the election results are known.
(Previous context:
U.S. election first votes! Midnight voting in a small town: Trump and Kamala Harris tied 3-3
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(Background supplement:
Preparing for the U.S. election: How have the S&P 500 and Bitcoin historically performed after the past ten elections?
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The U.S. presidential election began voting and counting on the 5th local time. Incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris is running for the Democratic Party, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while former U.S. President Donald Trump is running for the Republican Party, partnered with Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.
17:50 Update》
According to real-time voting data from the Associated Press, as of 6 PM Taiwan time on the 6th, Trump is temporarily leading with 267 votes, while Kamala Harris has 224 votes.
Trump has currently secured 267 votes, winning 11 votes from Indiana, 8 votes from Kentucky, 4 votes from West Virginia, 7 votes from Oklahoma, 11 votes from Tennessee, 9 votes from Alabama, 6 votes from Mississippi, 30 votes from Florida, 9 votes from South Carolina, 6 votes from Arkansas, 3 votes from North Dakota, 3 votes from South Dakota, 3 votes from Wyoming, 8 votes from Louisiana, 4 votes from Nebraska, 17 votes from Ohio, 40 votes from Texas, 10 votes from Missouri, 6 votes from Utah, 4 votes from Montana, 6 votes from Kansas, 6 votes from Iowa, 4 votes from Idaho, 16 votes from North Carolina, 16 votes from Georgia, 1 vote from Maine, and 19 votes from Pennsylvania.
Kamala Harris has secured 224 votes, with 3 votes from Vermont, 10 votes from Maryland, 7 votes from Connecticut, 11 votes from Massachusetts, 4 votes from Rhode Island, 14 votes from New Jersey, 19 votes from Illinois, 3 votes from Delaware, 28 votes from New York, 10 votes from Colorado, 3 votes from the District of Columbia, 1 vote from Maine, 54 votes from California, 12 votes from Washington, 8 votes from Oregon, 5 votes from New Mexico, 13 votes from Virginia, 4 votes from Hawaii, 1 vote from Nebraska, 4 votes from New Hampshire, and 10 votes from Minnesota.
Swing state voting results are crucial
The U.S. presidential election uses the Electoral College system, with 538 votes across 50 states. A candidate must secure 270 votes to win. Each state is allocated a different number of votes based on its population, and the winner takes all. This election is fiercely contested, and whether Trump or Kamala Harris wins will depend on capturing the seven swing states.
The seven swing states are Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Arizona (11 votes), and Nevada (6 votes).
The following are the closing times for voting in the seven swing states:
Georgia: 7 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (8 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
North Carolina: 7:30 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (8:30 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Pennsylvania: 8 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (9 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Arizona: 9 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (10 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Michigan: 9 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (10 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
Nevada: 10 PM Eastern Time on the 5th (11 AM Taiwan time on the 6th)
The closeness of the swing state vote counts will affect when the election results are announced. Historically, the earliest swing states to provide preliminary results might be Georgia and North Carolina. If Trump gains an advantage in the southern swing states, Kamala Harris would need to rely on winning the three slower-counting “blue wall” states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—to have a chance of winning. Voters might need to wait longer to know the final result.
Among all 50 states and one special administrative district in the U.S., the earliest voting ends at 7 AM Taiwan time on the 6th, with unofficial results available shortly after. The latest to conclude is Alaska, at 2 PM Taiwan time on the 6th, and counting usually takes a few hours.
The Washington Post estimates that voters might need to wait until the 6th local time, which is the evening of the 6th or the daytime of the 7th Taiwan time, to know the final election results. In the 2020 election, it took four days to announce the results, and this year’s results could also be delayed due to various factors.
Bitcoin and U.S. stocks surge
As the U.S. presidential election formally unfolds, Bitcoin has experienced a new wave of strong growth, surging to nearly $73,000 in the morning. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election, investors seem optimistic about the economic outlook, with all four major indices closing higher on the 5th:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 427.28 points or 1.02%, closing at 42,221.88 points.
The S&P 500 Index increased by 70.07 points or 1.23%, closing at 5,782.76 points.
The Nasdaq Index climbed 259.19 points or 1.43%, closing at 18,439.17 points.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 83.84 points or 1.69%, closing at 5,057.83 points.
As the first batch of election results continues to roll in, financial markets are experiencing significant fluctuations. The U.S. Dollar Index surged sharply, reaching 104 with a daily increase of 0.98%. Meanwhile, the spot gold price briefly dropped below $2,740, currently at $2,744 with a daily increase of 0.26%.
Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, stated that he is uncertain about what the forex market is trying to express, but all of the dollar’s earlier declines were erased today. He mentioned that the main reason he heard for the dollar’s rise over the past month is a Republican landslide, with the current thinking being that Trump and the Republicans will increase deficits, cut taxes, and maintain high yields.
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