Markus Thielen, founder of cryptocurrency research institution 10x Research, warned in a report on Monday that if the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF this week is lower than expected, BTC may fall to $59,000.
Bitcoin has experienced significant price corrections in recent days, quickly dropping from the $67,000 level this morning to a low of $64,628. At the time of writing, it has temporarily returned to $65,000, without showing any significant upward momentum.
According to Coindesk, the total inflow of funds into the US Bitcoin spot ETF reached a historical high of $2.6 billion during the week of March 11th to March 15th, but the majority of net inflows occurred from Monday to Wednesday, which pushed BTC to break through the historical high of $73,000. However, on Thursday and Friday, the spot ETF only recorded net inflows of $133 million to $198 million respectively, and BTC subsequently fell below $65,000 over the weekend.
Markus Thielen stated in the report on Monday that the “real test” for Bitcoin will come on Monday and Tuesday, and if the inflow of funds into the ETF is disappointing, the correction of Bitcoin may continue, and it is estimated that it may fall to $59,000, indicating that BTC will drop by more than 10% from the current price.
The report also added that although there may be deeper adjustments, the bull market for cryptocurrencies is not over yet. “We can still expect Bitcoin to rise significantly in the coming months because the bull market may continue. If BTC recovers above $70,000, a rebound may open the door to a substantial price increase.”
On the other hand, it is worth noting that according to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, the current demand for Bitcoin spot ETF mainly comes from retail investors rather than large institutions. He pointed out, “There may be some financial advisors, but to a large extent, retail investors are definitely an important factor based on trading volume.”
According to data provided by Balchunas, the Bitcoin spot ETF “IBIT” issued by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management giant, has an average of 250,000 transactions per day, with an average transaction size of 326 shares, about $13,000. In addition, the issuer confirmed to him that the main demand is driven by retail investors.
BlackRock declined to comment on this. BlackRock’s IBIT has attracted more than $14 billion in assets in just two months since its listing in mid-January, making it the biggest winner among Bitcoin spot ETFs.
If the current inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF mainly comes from retail investors, the recent significant price correction of BTC may lead these retail investors to sell off, potentially further causing Bitcoin’s price to fluctuate downwards.