Reuters today quoted industry executives and related participants as saying that the approval process for the Ethereum spot ETF has entered its final stage and may be approved for listing by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as early as July 4th.
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Bloomberg analyst estimates earliest launch on July 2nd
Analyst: Ethereum spot ETF listing won’t be “too hot”
Price predictions after the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF
The approval process for the Ethereum spot ETF seems to have entered its final stage. Today (27th), Reuters quoted industry executives and related participants’ insider information, stating that the SEC may approve the Ethereum spot ETF as early as July 4th.
After the SEC approved the 19b-4 exchange rule change documents for 8 Ethereum spot ETFs in May, all applicants submitted updated versions of the S-1 registration application documents on June 22nd. Once the SEC approves the final S-1 document, the Ethereum spot ETF can be listed for trading within 24 hours.
Executives from two anonymous companies revealed that the process of modifying the S-1 document has progressed to the point where only “minor issues” remain to be resolved. An attorney who is working with one of the issuers also stated that the approval process is currently in the “final stage” and approval “may not exceed one or two weeks.”
Although the SEC refused to comment on this, SEC Chair Gary Gensler revealed in an interview yesterday that the progress is currently “smooth.”
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the issuance time of Bitcoin futures/spot ETFs, also optimistically expects that the SEC is likely to officially approve these ETFs next week and bring forward the predicted listing date for the Ethereum spot ETF to “July 2nd.”
Further reading:
Bloomberg analyst: VanEck just submitted crucial documents to the SEC, further confirming the possibility of listing the Ethereum spot ETF on July 2nd.
Current indications show that the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF is only one step away, but many ETF and cryptocurrency analysts believe that the capital inflow after the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF will pale in comparison to the Bitcoin spot ETF listed at the beginning of the year.
James Butterfill, research director at Coinshares, commented, “The market value and trading volume of Ethereum are on a different scale than Bitcoin.”
Bryan Armour, an ETF analyst at Morningstar, pointed out:
However, currently, market analysts have extreme views on the price of ETH. Last week, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, also expressed a conservative view on the impact of the Ethereum ETF, estimating that the market flow of the Ethereum spot ETF would be about 15% of Bitcoin, believing that the potential upside space for ETH after the spot ETF is limited. He personally predicts that the price will be between $2,400 and $3,000.
However, QCP Capital, a digital asset trading company, has the opposite view, stating that the options market currently shows optimism, stating that if the Ethereum spot ETF can capture 10% to 20% of the flow of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it may drive the ETH price over $4,000 and approach its historical high of $4,800.
In terms of price, the ETF briefly rose above $3,400 in the early morning today but has since fallen to $3,377 (a 1.1% decrease in the past 24 hours). Ether has fallen 12% in the past 30 days.
(Source: Trading View)