Standard Chartered Bank stated that it currently has 80% to 90% confidence that the SEC will approve the Ethereum spot ETF this week, bringing in up to $45 billion in capital inflow for ETH within the first year. In addition, if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved as scheduled, Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high over the weekend.
With the sudden change in stance by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the Ethereum spot ETF, six applicants, including VanEck, Fidelity, Franklin, Ark Invest, Grayscale, and Invesco Galaxy, have submitted revised 19b-4 filings. This shift has significantly increased market expectations for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF by the 23rd.
Various positive news continues to drive up the price of ETH.
In light of this, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Forex Research and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, revised his April prediction, stating that there is currently 80% to 90% confidence that the SEC will approve the Ethereum spot ETF this week. Kendrick further predicts the following capital inflow after approval:
Kendrick also forecasts that by 2024, the price ratio between Ether and Bitcoin will remain at 5.4%. If BTC reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, the price of Ether could reach $8,000.
In early May, Standard Chartered Bank released a research report indicating that Bitcoin will benefit from the U.S. debt issue and Trump’s election, further pushing up the price. The report reiterated the year-end BTC target of $150,000, with a further increase to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Standard Chartered Bank further stated that if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved as expected on the 23rd, it will continue to boost the price of Ether and be beneficial for Bitcoin as well, as the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF will further legitimize the crypto industry. Kendrick stated:
Kendrick pointed out that the market conditions in recent days have been more optimistic, with increased capital inflow into the Bitcoin spot ETF, resulting in a historical high cumulative net inflow of $13.17 billion.
Data from SoSo Value shows that the net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the 21st was $306 million, with a continuous net inflow for 7 days. The net outflow of Grayscale GBTC was 0, and the net inflow of the BlackRock ETF IBIT was $290 million, bringing the total assets of the Bitcoin spot ETF to $58.91 billion.
However, even if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it remains to be seen whether it will immediately stimulate an increase in the prices of Bitcoin and Ether. It may not be as promising as the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. When the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved on January 11th, Bitcoin started to be affected by factors such as “sell the news” and a large net outflow of GBTC, resulting in a decline until the end of January before starting to rally.
Furthermore, it is widely expected that the approved document for the Ethereum spot ETF will be the 19b-4 (exchange rule change), and listing the product will still require approval of the S-1 (IPO registration statement) (ETHE requires approval of S-3). The time gap between these two may take several weeks to months, so there is still a long way to go before we see the expected $45 billion capital inflow predicted by Standard Chartered Bank.
Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow | Source: SoSo Value
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